Could New England be the Next Blue Wall to Fall?

In 2016 Trump’s victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin shocked pollsters. These states were part of the “blue wall,” the left-leaning states integral to a Democratic victory. And sure enough, the loss of these three states was enough to deny Clinton the presidency. The decline in white working-class voters’ support for Democrats could, however, have effects beyond the Rust Belt. Just like the Midwest, New England was once, from the birth of the GOP to around the mid-20^th century, solidly Republican. But, beginning with the New Deal and ultimately solidifying with the Republicans’ swing to the right in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, both of these regions became increasingly Democratic. This trend remained consistent through the 1990s and 2000s, but experienced an upheaval in 2016. In 2016, not only did Clinton lose the Industrial Midwest, but Maine and Rhode Island also voted 12% more Republican than they did in 2012, a swing similar to Ohio, Iowa, West Virginia, and the Dakotas. In fact, every state in New England swung further to Trump than the nation as a whole, with the exception of Massachusetts.

However, the possible future shift indicated by these trends is not just based on electoral data. New England, despite its politically liberal and tolerant reputation, is just as overwhelmingly white as the Midwest and Appalachia, and just as rural. As the Democratic Party becomes increasingly diverse, it will only have more difficulty courting voters in these white, rural areas. In addition, while it is a very secular region compared to the rest of the United States, New England is also heavily Catholic, a demographic that is increasingly out of step with Democrats on issues like abortion, and these voters could combine with rural conservatives to sway the region towards Trump or some future Republican.

Also like the Midwest, New England is an area with slowing population growth compared to the nation at large, and to the growing Sun Belt in the nation’s southeast and west, as well as slowing economic growth, as the manufacturing industries that once dominated the northern United States continue to decline. With the decline of factories comes hand in hand the decline of unions, who were once able to herd blue-collar whites into the Democratic column.

This should not be taken as a prediction that Democrats are certain to lose New England in 2020. It is still Democrats’ strongest region, and it seems likely that the party may nominate a Vermonter well-liked in his home state in 2020. But it is for that exact reason that Democrats may be in danger of ignoring a possible wavering member in the Democratic coalition. If Democrats ignore New England as a solid blue region as they did the Midwest in 2016, they may repeat a fatal mistake.